Research

PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES

  1. Delbrouck, C., Alonso-García, J. (2024) COVID-19 and Excess Mortality: An Actuarial Study. Risks 2024, 12, 61. (Open access). An earlier version of this work was presented at the Society of Actuaries 2023 Living to 100 conference in Orlando, Florida, 16–18 January 2023, and Kowloon, Hong Kong, 16 February 2023.
  2. Alonso-García, J., Sherris, M., Thirurajah, S. & Ziveyi, J. (2024) ​Taxation and Policyholder Behavior: The Case of Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefits. ASTIN Bulletin54(1), 185–212. Also circulated as Incorporating taxation in the valuation of variable annuity contracts: the case of the guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit.   WP version
  3. Xu, M., Alonso-García, J., Sherris, M. & Shao, A. W. (2023) Insuring longevity risk and long-term care: Bequest, housing and liquidity. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics Volume 111, July 2023, Pages 121-141. Winner of the ICA 2018 International Actuarial Association Health Section (IAAHS) Section Best Paper AwardAlso circulated as Demand For Annuities and Long Term Care Insurance with Recursive Utility: Impact of Housing and  Housing, Long-Term Care Insurance, and Annuities with Recursive Utility WP version
  4. de Mol van Otterloo, S., Alonso-García, J. (2022) A multi-state model for sick leave and its impact on partial early retirement incentives: the case of the Netherlands. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal Volume 2023, 2023 – Issue 3. WP version
  5. Alonso-García, J., Bateman, H., Bonekamp, J., van Soest, A. & Stevens, R. (2022) Saving Preferences after Retirement. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 198, pp.409-433. ICA 2018 Best Paper Award in Aspects of Long-Term Savings: Uncertainty in Low Real Returns, Longevity and Inflation.  Also circulated as A Cross Country Study of Saving and Spending in RetirementSaving Preferences in Retirement: The Impact of Pension Policy Design and Health Status and Saving Preferences in Retirement: The Impact of Mandatory Annuitization, Flexibility and Health Status. ;WP version
  6. Zittersteyn, G., Alonso-García, J. (2021) Common Factor Cause-Specific Mortality Model. Risks 2021, 9(12), 221 (Open access). WP version
  7. Jijiie, A., Alonso-García, J., & Arnold (-Gaille) (2021) Mortality by socio-economic class and its impact on the retirement schemes: How to render the systems fairer?European Actuarial Journal (Open access)Also circulated as When to retire? Optimizing retirement age when socio-economic differences are considered  WP version
  8. Alonso-García, J., Rosado-Cebrián, B. (2021) Financial crisis and pension reform in Spain: the effect of labour market dynamics. Journal of Economic Policy Reform Volume 24, 2021 – Issue 2 (Open access). WP version
  9. Alonso-García, J., Bateman, H., Bonekamp, J. & Stevens, R. (2021) Spending from regulated retirement drawdowns: The role of implied endorsement. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 123(3), 810–847. Also circulated as Retirement drawdown defaults: the role of implied endorsement. WP version
  10. Alonso-García, J., & Devolder, P. (2019) Continuous time model for notional defined contribution pension schemes: liquidity and solvency. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 88, pp. 57-76. Also circulated as Liquidity and solvency in pay-as-you-go defined contribution pension schemes: a continuous OLG sustainability framework. WP version
  11. Alonso-García, J., Sherris, M. (2019) One Size Fits All? Drawdown Structures in Australia and the Netherlands. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 13, pp. 14-27Discussion by Lee Lockwood. WP version
  12. Alonso-García, J., Boado-Penas, M. D. C., Devolder, P. (2018). Adequacy, Fairness and Sustainability of Pay-as-you-go Pension Systems: Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution. European Journal of Finance 24:13, pp. 1100-1122WP version
  13. Alonso-García, J., Wood, O., Ziveyi, J. (2018). Pricing and hedging guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits under a general Lévy framework using the COS method. Quantitative Finance 18 (6), pp 1049-1075 . WP version
  14. Alonso-García, J., Boado-Penas, M. D. C., Devolder, P. (2018) Automatic balancing mechanisms for Notional Defined Contribution Accounts in the presence of uncertainty. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2018 (2), pp. 85-108. WP version
  15. Alonso-García, J., Devolder, P. (2016). Guarantee valuation in Notional Defined Contribution Pension systems. ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA 46 (3), pp. 677-707. WP version
  16. Alonso-García, J., Devolder, P. (2016). Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 70, 224-236. WP version

BOOK CHAPTERS

  1. Holzmann, R., ​Alonso-García, J., Labit-Hardy, H. & Villegas, A. (2020) NDC schemes and heterogeneity in longevity: proposals for redesign. In: Holzmann R, Palmer E, Palacios R, Sacchi S (eds) Progress and challenges of nonfinancial defined pension schemes –volume 1: Addressing marginalization, polarization, and the labor market. The World Bank, Washington DC. Winner of the IAA Section Colloquium 2019 Pensions, Benefits and Social Security Section (PBSS) Section Best Paper AwardWP version
  2. Alonso-García J. (2019) Pension Systems. In: Gu D., Dupre M. (eds) Encyclopedia of Gerontology and Population Aging. Springer, Cham​. WP version

OTHER

  1. Alonso-García, J. (2022). AAS Thematic issue: “Mortality: From Lee–Carter to AI”. Annals of Actuarial Science, 1-3.
  2. Delbrouck, C., Alonso-García, J. (2024) COVID-19 and Excess Mortality: An Actuarial Study. 2023 Living to 100 Compendium.

WORKING PAPERS: 

  • Alonso-García, J., Boado-Penas, M. d. C. & Eisenberg, J. (2024) Assessing Public Pensions Using Ruin Probability: Pay-As-You-Go versus Mixed Schemes. CEPAR Working Paper 2024/12. Also circulated as Guaranteeing the unsustainable: A framework for mixed pension schemes.

Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes are heavily affected by demographic risks. To mitigate the financial burden, mixed pension schemes that combine elements of funding and PAYG have been proposed. In this paper, we introduce a mixed scheme framework designed for a shrinking working-age population given a specific level of pension expenditure. We evaluate its performance using both the one-year ruin probability and the Value at Risk of the accumulated deficits over time. We also examine the implications of guaranteeing a return of zero on the investments within the funding scheme. Furthermore, we explore the creation of a buffer fund that invests part of the capital in the financial markets, thereby alleviating the financial pressures of the PAYG part. Our findings indicate that, although the proposed mixed framework does not hedge against demographic risk, it enhances the financial health of the system, delaying the need for pension reforms as a result.

  • Morsomme, H., Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P. (2024) Intergenerational risk sharing in pay-as-you-go pension schemes CEPAR Working Paper 2024/03

We present a two-step convex family of risk-sharing mechanisms. The first shares the risk between contributors and retirees through adjustments in the contribution rate, used to calculate the global covered wage bill, and the benefit ratio that represents the relationship between average pensions and wages. The second step studies how the retirees’ risk should be shared between the different retirees’ generations through adjustments in the replacement rate and a sustainability factor that affects pension indexation during retirement. We perform a detailed study of the effect of social planner’s targets and solidarity weight between various generations in a deterministic and stochastic environment.

  • Bateman, H., Stevens, R., Alonso-García, J. & Ponds, E. (2018) Learning to Value Annuities: The Role of Information and Engagement CEPAR Working Paper 2018/17

Using an online experimental survey we investigate perception (in terms of understanding, riskiness and control) and valuation (elicited using iterative multiple price lists) of lifetime annuities relative to flexible drawdown products. We find that for those participants who are engaged with the experimental tasks, information provision and an online calculator can substantially reduce or eliminate behavioral drivers of the complex task of valuation of annuities. 

WORK IN PROGRESS

  • « Variables annuities: A closer look at ratchet guarantees, hybrid contract designs, and taxation »: with Len Patrick Garces (UTS Sydney) and Jonathan Ziveyi (UNSW Sydney)
  • « A hybrid variable annuity contract embedded with living and death benefit riders »: with Samuel Thirurajah (TAL Australia, Sydney) and Jonathan Ziveyi (UNSW Sydney)
  • « Behavioral economics and the bequest motive in presence of illiquid savings »: with Hazel Bateman (UNSW Sydney) and Ralph Stevens (CPB, The Netherlands)
  • « Utility indifference pricing of a coupon-yielding bond »: with Qihe Tang (UNSW Sydney)

MEDIA